Statistics
Model Performance
Tracking educational analytics accuracy over time. All data is published transparently for research and evaluation purposes.
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Performance
Resolved Markets: 1,560
First-3 Accuracy: 73.3%
Scoring Method
Only markets where the First-3 Engine issued a directional YES or NO call are included. NO CALL classifications are excluded from accuracy calculations.
The First-3 Minute Engine permanently locks its prediction after the first three minutes of market activity, allowing performance to be measured objectively against final market outcomes.
Breakdown
Additional Findings
Scoring Methodology
How we measure accuracy
First-3 Accuracy
Measures whether the actual market outcome fell within the model's top 3 predicted scenarios. A result of 68% means that in 68% of resolved markets, the real outcome matched one of the three highest-probability model predictions. This metric rewards calibrated probabilistic thinking over single-point forecasting.
Directional Calls
Measures the accuracy of the model's directional bias — whether BTC moved up or down relative to the model's primary call. A result of 74% means the model correctly identified the dominant price direction in 74% of resolved markets where a directional call was issued.
No-Call Markets
Markets where the model determined that signal confidence was insufficient to issue a directional call. These are excluded from directional accuracy calculations to preserve statistical integrity. No-call markets are tracked separately for transparency.
Important: Past performance and model accuracy statistics do not guarantee future results. This data is for educational purposes only. Vertex does not provide financial, investment, or trading advice.