Vertex v1
Model Guide
How to read and interpret the Vertex v1 signals, probability outputs, and market type classifications.
Understanding the Probability Output
The Vertex v1 system is built around estimating the probability that a market will resolve YES (above the target price).
The percentage displayed beneath the First-3 Engine and Composite Signal represents the model's estimated probability of a YES outcome.
Example — YES call
First-3 Call: YES
Probability: 81%
The model estimates an 81% chance the market will finish above the target price.
Example — NO call
First-3 Call: NO
Probability: 19%
The model estimates only a 19% chance of a YES outcome. Since the model always measures YES probability, this also implies an 81% probability of a NO outcome (100% − 19% = 81%).
A NO CALL indicates the model does not currently detect a meaningful directional edge. A probability near 50% is effectively a coin flip — the model sees approximately equal chances of a YES or NO outcome.
- 50% = No clear edge
- Above 50% = Increasing YES probability
- Below 50% = Increasing NO probability
The Composite Signal follows the same logic. The displayed percentage always represents the estimated probability of a YES result, regardless of whether the final signal is YES, NO, or NO LEAN.
Why Does the Composite Signal Continue to Move After the First-3 Call Locks?
The First-3 Engine and Composite Signal serve different purposes.
The First-3 Engine analyzes only the first three minutes of market activity. After three minutes, its prediction permanently locks and never changes. This allows performance to be measured objectively and provides a consistent historical record of how opening market behavior relates to final outcomes.
The Composite Signal is different. It remains active for the entire market and continuously updates as new information becomes available.
After the First-3 Engine locks, the Composite Signal continues to evaluate (among many others):
- Bitcoin price movement
- Market momentum
- Volatility
- Kalshi market pricing
- Trend changes
- Target pressure
- Time remaining until settlement
As conditions change throughout the market, the Composite Signal may increase or decrease its estimated probability of a YES outcome.
Think of it this way:
The First-3 Engine is a snapshot of the market's opening behavior.
The Composite Signal acts as a live weather forecast that updates as new conditions develop.
First-3 Engine Market Types
The First-3 Engine classifies each market into one of four types based on the conditions observed during the opening three minutes.
Continuation
The market opens with clear directional momentum and the First-3 Engine detects conditions that suggest the current trend is likely to continue. Continuation markets often occur when price movement, momentum, and market participation are aligned in the same direction.
Reversal
The market opens moving in one direction, but the First-3 Engine detects signs that the move may be weakening. Reversal markets occur when momentum begins fading and evidence suggests price may move back toward the opposite side of the target.
Mixed
The First-3 Engine detects conflicting information. Some indicators support a YES outcome while others support a NO outcome. Mixed markets typically result in lower confidence because no single direction has established a clear advantage.
Chop / Low Edge
The market lacks meaningful directional conviction and often trades within a narrow range. Probabilities tend to remain near 50%, making the outcome difficult to forecast. Chop / Low Edge conditions are often treated as a coin flip environment where the model detects little to no statistical advantage.
Disclaimer: Vertex Analytics is an educational tool. All model outputs are probabilistic estimates, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research before making any financial decisions.